NFL Scouting Combine Day 6

So the NFL Scouting Combine started today, big whoop. Unless you are in the minority — one of the few times being in the minority is actually a good thing — and pay for the NFL Network, you probably won’t be able to see any of it, aside from video clips on NFL.com. Either way, the underwear olympics is in full swing, which means the draft is just that much closer.

If you’re concerned you may be missing out on the excitement of the combine, trust me, you aren’t missing much.  The only important part about the combine are the player interviews and the mental tests.  The shuttle run, 40 yard dash, high jump, bench press, and the rest of the crap those guys are subjected to, is meaningless.  If you weren’t aware that these draftees are really fast and really strong then I recommend counseling or a taking a higher dose of your sanity meds.

The player interview is the main aspect of the combine that NFL teams are concerned with because they actually get a chance to meet face to face with a potential prospect.  This is the time — the one and only time for a lot of team representatives – to pick these player’s brain and get to know him on a personal level.  Although I’m sure many of these guys are pretty good actors and say a bunch of stuff that they think these team reps want to hear, it shouldn’t be hard to sniff out the hacks.

The psych tests and the wonderlic are also intriguing, and depending on how the draftee performs on this test, it gives the talent evaluators a good idea on the type of person these guys may turn out to be.  If a player you are considering drafting scores a record low on the wonderlic, you should probably consider passing on him (re: Michael Vick, Vince Young).

A couple years ago when Comcast was airing the NFL Network for free, I tried forcing myself to watch the combine so that I could feel like an uber NFL fan and know everything about these players, but I only lasted two days.  And considering we don’t even get to see the best parts, I decided the combine isn’t really worth spending the time to watch — at least not yet.

The other popular thing out in the NFL world is mock drafts.  Allow me to say right now, I hate mock drafts.  They are utterly useless, often times created by someone who doesn’t know what they are talking about.

Listen, it’s hard enough to follow one team closely and know it inside-out, so how do you expect someone to know everything about 31 other teams in the league?  Guess what, that was a rhetorical question, it’s impossible.

For whatever reason, last year I suckered myself into this mocking world and attempted to create a few of my own.  I got a lot of the obvious picks right, but for the most part, it was a disaster.  The thing about mock drafts that make them completely pointless is the mocker has no clue what team is going to trade up or down, or trade themselves completely out of a draft (I’m looking at you Jets, Cowboys).  So what’s the point?  I’d rather participate in something that I know will actually stand up when the moment of truth comes instead of a massive guessing game — this vaguely reminds me of fantasy sports, but those actually take skill, therefore I approve.

I get that the speculation is why it’s so fun, but the popularity of mock drafts has grown to exponentially, and they’re all bad.

As I mentioned earlier, my biggest beef with them isn’t the mock drafts themselves, it’s the mockers.  The people who create these things think they know what they are talking about, and 99% of the time they are clueless about a particular team’s needs and just start filling spots.

Exhibit A: Bucky Brooks’ mock draft “2.0.” (Note – When a guy has an upgraded version of a mock draft when nothing of substance has changed since the college football season has ended, that’s your first clue that this guy has no idea what he’s doing.)

From the very first pick Bucky has successfully failed, while simultaneously exposing us to the most generic analysis I’ve read in quite some time.  Bucky mocks that the St. Louis Rams will draft this year’s super sexy pick (and whose name I refuse to learn how to pronounce thus he shall hence forth be known as King Kong), Ndamukong Suh, as the first pick in the 2010 draft.

King Kong certainly is a good player, arguably the most dominant defensive tackle coming out of college in a long time (pardon the lack of reference).  However, when considering the Rams’ roster and team needs, drafting King Kong would be the dumbest thing they could do.  Their interior line play should be the least of their concerns right now.  Why?  Because they don’t have a franchise quarterback, duh?

Just last year everyone who followed college football was slobbering at the idea that Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, and Tim Tebow might be entering the draft all at the same time as Mathew Stafford and Mark “Dirty” Sanchez.  Draft experts (ugh) like Mel Kiper, Todd McShay, and Mike Mayock considered the possiblity of all of those quarterbacks entering the draft as one of the best quarterback classes of all time.  The player at the top of the list was not Mathew Stafford or Mark Sanchez.  Nor was “the greatest college football player of all time” Tim Tebow, or even Colt McCoy.  It was Sam Bradford.  The guy who possessed it all; great arm, superb accuracy, keen intellect, and phenomenal leadership.  He was the consensus #1 pick, and considered a no-brainer as the best player in the draft.

Fast forward to the 2010 draft and a shoulder injury later, and people are completely dismissing what kind of player Sam Bradford is.  Yes I said is, the guy didn’t die for crying out loud.  Bradford, in my opinion, should be the #1 prospect going into this draft, not King Kong.

How many more teams have to win the Super Bowl with a franchise quarterback before teams like the Rams decide they want to actually improve at that position and begin to compete with the rest of the NFL again?  Look at it this way.  Can you name the quarterback for the Rams in both of their Super Bowl appearances?  Yes, that was pretty easy wasn’t it?  Kurt Warner.  Ok then smart guy, who was their defensive tackle?  I’ll wait.

Name recognition isn’t a very solid argument, I’ll be the first to admit that, but the fact is the Rams didn’t make two Super Bowl appearances because of their stud defensive tackle, although I’m sure he helped.  It’s because Kurt Warner was great quarterback.  While he didn’t single-handidly carry the Rams to the promised land, he was biggest reason why; just like Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Rich Gannon, and every other good quarterback this past decade, and in the history of the league.  It’s no coincidence that all these teams who made it to the Super Bowl, or who are considered the elite teams in the league year in and out, have a frachise quarterback.  The only exceptions being the 2000 Ravens and 2002 Bucs, but there are always exceptions.  However, history is on my side, and history sides with franchise quarterback.

So don’t let guys like Bucky Brooks, or Todd McShay, try to convince you that the Rams should draft King Kong over Sam Brandford, because they shouldn’t.

To make this more Colts related, let’s take a gander at what Bucky Brooks astute analysis of the Colts pick should be.

31. Indianapolis Colts
Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State

The hardworking Odrick is an ideal fit as an interior player in the Colts’ scheme, and his presence will help shore up the team’s woes against the run.

Oh god, not this crap again.  Hey guys, guess what?  The Colts can’t stop the run!  (palmface)

This is why I hate deja vu.  I swear I’ve read this same statement about the Colts’ defense about a million times now.  Seriously Bucky, what woes are you talking about?  Apparently you didn’t watch the playoffs, because if you did, you would have seen the Colts hold two of the best running teams in the league to under 100 yards rushing each.  The Colts’ run defense is fine, please people, get this through your head.  Both defensive tackles will be retained this offseason as they are both Exclusive-Rights free agents, which I covered last week, so the Colts have nothing, I repeat, nothing to worry about going into next season as far as stopping the run is concerned.

Also, this isn’t the first time I’ve seen Jared Odrick’s name associated with the Colts; although the reasoning for picking him has been a bit different, the basic premise is always the same.

The area of concern with the Colts is the offensive line, specifically at the tackle position.  This sentiment is shared throughout Colts nation as evidenced by the poll on the front page of this blog.  I agree that offensive tackle is an area of concern for the Colts, but not in the way most people think.

I believe Charlie Johnson will be retained again this season.  He’s a restricted free agent, which means if another team signs him, the Colts are going to get compensated with draft picks.  However, there aren’t too many teams who are in need of a pass blocking left tackle at the moment.  Most other teams in the NFL cherish the run a bit more than the Colts do.  Another bit of evidence that leads me to believe C.J. will be around for a few more years happened last year during the latter part of training camp.  Back then, C.J. was recovering from pectoral surgery, and days before he was allowed to practice, Jim Caldwell announced that the starting left tackle position belonged to C.J., not Tony Ugoh, even though he hadn’t stepped on a football season since the playoffs.  Don’t underestimate how huge that move was in solidifying C.J.’s position on the team.  So believe me when I say this, C.J. will be the starting left tackle come week one, write it down.

If the Colts target a lineman, there’s a good possibility it will be a tackle to supplant Ryan Diem not C.J., who has been struggling mightily on the right side of the line for a couple years now.  This is where I agree with the consensus of offensive tackle is the biggest need, except on the opposite side.  However, the Colts aren’t going to spend a first round draft pick at the 31st position on a second rate talent.  Many mockers have pinned Charles Brown as obvious pick, but to that I say, it’s obviously wrong.

Ask yourself this: When was the last time Polian drafted the “obvious” pick?  He never has, and never will.  This is why he’s considered the best personnel man in the biz, and what makes his track record in the first round unfathomably good.

Remember, he’s the guy who drafted Manning over Leaf.  And who also drafted James over Williams.  The guy knows what he is doing, there’s no question about that.  But the intriguing aspect of his drafting strategy is to target a position that isn’t necessarily a need.  Remember when Gonzo was drafted back in 2007?  Receiver was far from a need, yet Polian grabs a receiver in the first round — cue Marvin injuring his knee and Gonzo having to step up, and voila, Polian looks like a genius.  Had Gonzo not injured his knee this season, I think we’d be singing his praises right now instead of Garcon and Collie, but either way I think the Colts came out alright.

How about last season when he drafted a running back in the first round?  Not many people saw that one coming either, although I had an inkling that Polian was sour about the horrid running game, which evidently, is the result of a horrible run blocking offensive line.

The point is, he never drafts the obvious or extreme need, which is why I say to all those mockers out there who are slotting the Colts with Charles Brown — it ain’t gonna happen.  Just like last year when the sexy picks were Peria Jerry and Ziggy Hood, who I vehemently argued against drafting and stated there was no way in hell either of those guys would don a Colts uniform.  I came out right about that, partly because the Falcons drafted Peria Jerry (one of the few mock draft picks I got right last year, a-thank you), and the Colts passed on Ziggy Hood who ended up becoming a Steeler.  The reason why is because Donald Brown was the best player at that position, which is exactly how Polian drafts.  The leading rusher in the entire nation was just sitting there for the taking, but yet many people wanted the Colts to spend the pick on a defensive tackle.  At the time I agreed that the Colts needed to shore up the run defense, but I had more faith in the current tackles that Polian had just acquired, then I did someone who preferred the nickname “Ziggy” over the infinitely more awesome name birth name, Evander.

Either way, for all you diehard mockers out there, just remember one thing, stop slotting players with certain teams just so the outcome is how you want it.  Draft just like Polian does and pick the best player.  Try it out and see how successful you are.